Is there a future for the peace process?

The weeks that we are going through will be crucial to understand if there is a genuine revival of the peace process, and if they materialize openings planned in total for the entire Middle East. The road seems uphill, in the opinion of many observers. This is due to the complexity of the situation in the Middle East and the positions of the various actors in the field, which certainly are very far apart. To make it even more difficult when a clear reading of the situation there is feverish activity of international diplomacy and accumulated appointments of recent days. If June 4 is the discourse with which the U.S. President Barack Obama will address the Muslim world (even if it seems that he does

not reveal the details of his peace plan, instead it seemed like at first), in the days immediately following have provided the Lebanese legislative elections (June 7) and the Iranian presidential elections (12) - on which various stages are staged as many fragments of what is now one big drama that involves the entire Middle East. In this overlapping of events is a frantic diplomatic activity intensified. In addition to meetings of the American president with the Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu (last week), the Egyptian Foreign Minister Abul Gheit and president Mahmoud Abbas (respectively yesterday and tomorrow), you must also mention the recent visit of Vice-President American Joseph Biden in Lebanon and the Middle East trip of the Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov that led it to make a stop in Damascus, where he met with Hamas leader Khaled Meshaal, causing the furious reaction of Israel. These meetings are many moves that the various regional and international actors being made to secure its role in the new regional balance pending. The multifaceted diplomatic activity in recent days, while it demonstrates the seriousness of U.S. intentions (though not necessarily its effectiveness), the other highlights the inevitably interconnected nature now of the various Middle Eastern issues, which Obama seems to want to give a solution. And this is one of the most important elements that should characterize the new American peace plan: Obama seems to be willing to link progress in the peace process Arab-Israeli solution to the Iranian nuclear issue. This choice reflects the reality of a fact: Iran, which exercises considerable influence in countries such as Iraq, Lebanon and Palestine itself, is considered an existential threat by Israel, and increasingly also by the so-called "moderate Arab countries." It 'obvious that the solution of the Palestinian issue does not automatically defuse the Iranian nuclear crisis, but certainly eliminate a source of enormous tension in the Middle East, which is currently subject to easy manipulation, as well as a comfortable theater of war by proxy. " Some observers have pointed out that the major risk of this approach is that the start of a process of Arab-Israeli peace will become a mere instrument for compacting a western front, Israeli and Arab against Iran, and not an end in itself , whose aim should coincide with the birth of a Palestinian state alongside Israel. To reinforce this fear is the fact that the positions of Israelis and Palestinians are at this time ancient, that Netanyahu does not seem to be conducive to the creation of an independent Palestinian state, and that the Palestinians are deeply divided among themselves. In addition, the objective fact that at this time the creation of a sovereign Palestinian state, territorially contiguous and economically viable is a difficult task, given the conditions on the ground. Many analysts have also stressed that, in the presence of an international approach unchanged against the Gaza Strip, where Hamas is in power, any peace plan is destined to fail. I am therefore still many obstacles to overcome, if you want to avoid the new peace plan gives rise to yet another negotiating an end in itself. According to all experts, the time available is now expired, and not come to peace will inevitably mean the outbreak of new, dramatic, war. Nor should fall into the temptation to make peace on the one hand to better deal with a war on the other. For many, now in the Middle East, the solution can only be comprehensive. This is undoubtedly the most difficult, but it is the only one that can lead to true peace. Partial solutions will not work, risking to be only a prelude to future conflicts.

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